2015 MLB Award Predictions

    It's October!!! We all know what that means. With only about one week to go in the MLB season, it's about time for the end of the season awards to be handed out. Here are my predictions for the big awards in Major League Baseball in 2015.

American League
Most Valuable Player-Josh Donaldson (Toronto Blue Jays)

    In my opinion, this is the one major award race that is not close. Donaldson is the obvious choice for MVP. He has been hot from the word go and has led the charge as the Blue Jays have surged past the Yankees into first place in the AL East and likely into the postseason for the first time since 1993. Donaldson has a .300 batting average (10th), 41 home runs (3rd), and 123 RBIs (1st) (top 10 in all three categories in the American League. One point for Donaldson is that he is the unquestioned offensive leader of the best team in the major leagues right now. His teammates, Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion are also in the top five in RBIs in the American League, proving that this team is a force to be reckoned with. As I said, if it were up to me, Josh Donaldson is the American League MVP, no contest.

Cy Young Award-Dallas Keuchel (Houston Astros)

Keuchel is 15-0 at home this season

    This is a closer race, but it didn't get all that close until recently. Some might give the award to Toronto's David Price, since he has been nearly untouchable since coming to Toronto in early August, but Keuchel has had Cy Young stuff since Opening Day. Keuchel is 19-8 with a 2.47 ERA and 213 strikeouts this season. He holds the American League lead in wins, 2nd in the AL in ERA and 6th in strikeouts. The kicker is that he has literally been unbeatable at home. He is 15-0 in 18 home starts with a 1.46 ERA at Minute Maid Park in Houston. Opponents have a batting average of .186 against Keuchel at home. You have to be able to win at home, and Keuchel doesn't lose. David Price is the best pitcher on the best team-a team that could probably make the postseason without him. The Astros have literally pitched their way into the postseason and Keuchel is leading the way.

Rookie of the Year- Carlos Correa (Houston Astros)
    Even if your pitching staff is mostly responsible for your team's success, you can't win if you can't score. Even the best pitching staff needs an offense, and that's what Carlos Correa gives to Houston. Billed as the shortstop of the future before he even laced up in the big leagues, Correa has lived up to the hype. Correa has a .277 average with 21 home runs and 63 RBIs in his first 96 big league games. These are big numbers from Correa, especially since he plays shortstop, a position not usually known for big numbers like that. Despite these, Correa's real impact however, comes from his defense. He is proving to already be one of the best defensive shortstops in the league. He has a .968 fielding percentage and seems to make the highlight reel every night. All of these reasons are why I believe Carlos Correa will be the 2015 AL Rookie of the Year.

Manager of the Year-A.J. Hinch (Houston Astros)
    Houston almost comes away with a clean sweep of these awards as I am sending the AL Manager of the Year award to the Lonestar State as well. After a 70-92 season a year ago under Bo Porter, the Houston Astros hired Hinch as manager, made some moves, and are now holding on to a playoff spot with 3 games to go. Their 84-75 record is already a huge turnaround and the season isn't even over yet. The biggest difference is that a year ago, Houston had a run differential of -94 and this year, their run differential is +93. That is 187-run turnaround from season to season. That can be attributed to much better hitting, and a lights out pitching staff.


National League
Most Valuable Player-Bryce Harper (Washington Nationals)

Harper is in the top 10 in all offensive categories

    This is an award that is hard for me to give to Harper, because the Nationals are not going to the playoffs. I think that a real sign of an MVP is that you can lead your team to the playoffs, which Harper did not do. Also, he recently got into a dugout altercation with teammate Jonathon Papelbon, and causing clubhouse friction is the opposite of  what an MVP should do. But the fact of the matter is that there have been candidates surface for the award throughout the year, but Harper was the only one to sustain his success throughout the year. At the start of the season, both Chicago's Anthony Rizzo and the Dodgers' Adrian Gonzalez had hot starts, but have since cooled off a bit. Colorado Rockies third baseman has put up monster numbers, but for a mediocre team. Lastly, the Mets' Daniel Murphy has led his team to an NL East title, but his numbers simply aren't big enough to outweigh some of the other candidates. Therefore, by default, the MVP goes too Bryce Harper. Harper's numbers at face value are certainly great. He is tied for the league lead in home runs (41) and batting average (.331). He is tied for 5th in runs batted in (96) and in the top ten in hits. By individual numbers alone, Bryce Harper has earned MVP honors.

Cy Young Award- Jake Arrietta (Chicago Cubs)

Arrieta threw no-hitter Aug. 30th; 21-6, 1.82 ERA in 2015

    The Cy Young Award race, like many other award races in the National League this year was highly competitive. You could make a case to give the award to a handful of aces. This year however, I give the award to Chicago Cubs pitcher Jake Arrietta. Arrietta is 21-6 (1st MLB) with a 1.82 ERA (2nd MLB) with 229 (4th NL) strikeouts in 223 innings (3rd MLB). Not to mention that Jake Arrieta threw a no-hitter August 30th against the Dodgers (a playoff team) in Los Angeles. Less than a moth later, he almost did it again against the Pirates (another playoff team) surrendering the first and only hit to Pittsburgh in the top of the 7th inning. Arrieta seems to get better with every start as it gets closer to the playoffs, which is what you want from the ace of a playoff team. Technically Jon Lester is being paid to be the ace, but there is no doubt that Arrietta will get the ball for the Cubs in the Wild Card game with their season on the line. That is why he is my NL Cy Young Award winner.

Rookie of the Year- Kris Bryant (Chicago Cubs)

SI cover August 2015

    The only award race that has been tighter than the NL Cy Young race is the race for NL Rookie of the Year. It seems as though there are a dozen candidates and each one of them leads all the other rookies in some category. If you watched a matchup between the San Francisco Giants and the St. Louis Cardinals, you were likely to see four or five of those candidates on the same field. And if you watched the Chicago Cubs at all, you saw a team full of rookies in the same dugout. That is the dugout where the award will go, as I believe Cubs' third baseman Kris Bryant will win it. Ever since Bryant was drafted 3rd overall in the 2013 MLB Draft by the Chicago Cubs, he was long awaited and highly-anticipated. Personally, I haven't seen that kind of buzz around a draft prospect since Stephen Strasburg, and this may have been even bigger since he was bound for Wrigley. Despite their notable struggles Chicago remains to be one of the most alive baseball cities with some of the best fans in all of sports. The Wrigley faithful needed somebody to rally around, and on April 17, 2015 in an afternoon home game against San Diego, Kris Bryant took his first steps into the batter's box at Wrigley Field. In 148 games since then, he has lived up to his sky-high expectations. Bryant has a .279 average with 26 home runs and 99 RBIs. Bryant, along with his teammates, have ignited a great baseball city once again. Bryant has also broken Cubs' rookie records for home runs and RBIs. It would be hard to believe, going into the playoffs, that if your team isn't in the postseason, that you wouldn't be rooting for the Cubbies. I expect Wrigleyville to gain hundreds of new fans this month.

Manager of the Year- Terry Collins (New York Mets)
    The last award I will hand out goes to New York Mets manager Terry Collins. With all of the attention in New York going to the Yankees during baseball season for the past few decades, the Mets were in need of a change. Each time in the past few years that it seemed like they'd be in contention, the Mets found a way to blow it by season's end and sitting at home in October. Then walks in Terry Collins. The Mets are 89-70 with three games to go and have already clinched the NL East title. The St. Louis Cardinals are the best team in the National League and manager Mike Matheny is certain a candidate for Manager of the Year, but the difference is, the Cardinals were expected to manke an appearance in October, and the Mets were not. And because the Mets are not only in the playoffs, but ran away the the division in the second half of the season, Terry Collins has earned the title of National League Manager of the Year.

    So there you have it. Those are my predictions for the major award races. Enjoy the rest of the regular season and I will see you back here in a few days to give you my predictions for the postseason.

Better With Age

    Two of the strangest stories that I have encountered in the MLB this season lie with the two teams on either side of the most heated rivalry in baseball: The Yankees and the Red Sox.

Ortiz has 36 HRs and 101 RBIs this year

    First, earlier this month, Red Sox DH David Ortiz became the first Red Sox players in history to hit 35 home runs in six different seasons with the team. I have no problem believing that David Ortiz has done this, as he seems to end up 35+ HRs and 100 RBIs every year (both of which he has already done this year). Plus the fact that Ortiz is 39 years old and putting up those numbers is even more impressive. The part I have trouble believing is that Ortiz, as good as he is, is the first Red Sox player ever to do that.

    The Boston Red Sox have one of the most storied histories in sports, which includes having some of the greatest players to ever play the game, wear the Red Sox uniform. With guys like Carlton Fisk, Carl, Yastrzemski, Manny Ramirez, Ted Williams (the greatest hitter in MLB history), and Wade Boggs having suited up for Boston in the past, it is hard to believe that none of them hit 35 home runs six times for the Red Sox. But then again, I guess the fact that it is in six separate seasons is the impressive part. Keep swinging your way into the history books Big Papi.

    The other perplexing story in the league this year comes from the Empire State. The New York Yankees are likely heading to the postseason in some fashion in a few weeks. The big question is: How? Usually, when the Yankees are October-bound, the media can't get enough and the Yankees take center stage. This year however, the Yankees are having one of the quietest winning that I have ever witnessed. I didn't believe a quiet winning season was possible in the Big Apple. Maybe it's because the Mets are stealing all the attention with their improbable playoff run. Who knows?

Rodriguez has 2052 career RBIs (2nd all-time)

   But surprisingly, it's not the Yankees' success that I question. It's the person leading the charge. Alex Rodriguez is 40 years old and having one of the best seasons of his life. The problem is that Rodriguez is not like David Ortiz. Ortiz, as I stated before puts up great numbers every year without missing a beat. Rodriguez has missed many beats. A-Rod missed most of the 2013 season for multiple reasons and was suspended for the entire 2014 season for using performance-enhancing drugs. Missing almost a year and a half of baseball would be hard for anyone, but for a 40 year-old, it should have been career suicide. Instead, Alex Rodriguez has 32 home runs and 83 RBIs in 2015, and if it weren't for Toronto's Josh Donaldson, who is all but a shoe-in for American League MVP, Rodriguez would be in that conversation. How does a man of any age rebound from a year and half without baseball...but more importantly how does a man on the back end of his career rebound with MVP-type numbers in a market where media scrutiny is unparalleled...and do so quietly?! I hate to say it, but should the league re-test A-Rod? It's the only thing that seems to make sense.

    Regardless, Boston's David Ortiz and New York's Alex Rodriguez seem to be validating the mantra that some things get better with age.

Mile High Mystery

    One of the biggest mysteries in Major League Baseball is the situation in Colorado. The Colorado Rockies are a great organization in a great city. However, that organization has been one shrouded in mediocrity.

    In the 22 years since the organization's birth in 1993, the Rockies have only had seven winning seasons, and three playoff appearances. Colorado's best season came in 2007, when the team won 13 of their last 14 games to sneak into the playoffs, and made an improbable run to the World Series before getting swept in four games by the Boston Red Sox.

Helton's #17 was retired in 2014

    Even so, the Colorado Rockies have never won a division title. Each of their three franchise playoff appearances came as a wild card team. One the biggest reasons for Colorado's struggles is their inability to keep star talent long-term. Matt Holiday, Larry Walker, and most recently, Troy Tulowitzki are among the big name bats who have passed through Colorado, only to go ring-chasing with other teams not long after. Getting the big bats to come through town isn't the big problem, as Colorado's Coors Field is known to be a number boosting hitters park. They were lucky enough to house Todd Helton throughout his entire 16-year career. In fact, he is the only Rockies player to have his number retired by the team. The main issue, that has yet to be solved, is the endless revolving door that is the Rockies' pitching rotation. The thin air in Colorado makes it a difficult place to pitch. In the 22 years of the organization, Colorado has never had a bonafide ace at the top of their rotation. They have had a few former aces come through looking to extend their careers to avoid retirement (Oswalt, Moyer), but never a top of the line guy. There was once a time where they thought Ubaldo Jimenez was the long-awaited answer, but that proved untrue, as he punched a ticket to Cleveland after a couple of years.

Jimenez went 56-45 in 5.5 years with the Rockies

    As I said before, Colorado is a tough place to pitch. The thin air makes the ball travel, and often times, carry out of the park completely. Free agent pitchers are quick to avoid the Rockies, and trades often see star players leave Colorado, not come in. This forces the Rockies to grow all of their own talent on the farm. This includes the highly-anticipated debut of the second pick of the 2013 MLB Draft, Jon Gray, who is set to make his ML debut tonight against the Seattle Mariners.

    It remains to be seen if Gray will provide an answer to Colorado's perpetual pitching woes, but there is always something that can be done.Many people think that the answer is to push the walls of Coors Field back to hold the ball in the park better. Actually, this is not the answer. With a 415-foot center field wall, Colorado's Coors Field is already the fifth largest park in the league dimension-wise. Plus with the league's largest park, Minute Maid Park in Houston, announcing the removal of Tal's Hill in center field, and moving that wall in from 435 feet to 408 feet. Coors Field is about to move up that list. It is also the second largest stadium as far as capacity, so moving the walls out even more would be overkill.

2013 1st round draft pick, Jon Gray, makes ML debut tonight vs. SEA

    A possible answer lies in the pitching itself. Since Colorado has to rely almost entirely on it's farm system for talent, that is how the team can improve. A fastball would work in the thin air of the Mile High City, but not everyone can throw 98 mph. Also, most off-speed pitches flatten in that environment, hurting the pitch's effectiveness. This makes it difficult to pitch effectively in town, and calls for less conventional methods.

    The use of pitches like the sinker and the cutter are on the rise in Major League Baseball, as alternative to the conventional four seam fastball, so that pitchers who can't throw 98 mph can have an effective primary pitch. Since both the sinker and the cutter are variations of the fastball, they rely less on air movement, and are less likely to be effected by Colorado's thin air. Plus, these pitches induce more ground balls, which is the way to get outs at Coors. If you keep the ball on the ground you keep the ball in the park.

Coors Field-5th largest field in majors (depth), 2nd largest (capacity)

    Many big names have had success with one or both of these pitches. Mariano Rivera recorded a Major League record 652 saves with ONE pitch-the cutter. He also likely holds the record for most broken bats. Francisco Liriano had two straight seasons with an ERA above 5.00. He developed a sinker, found a home as a solid number two pitcher on a fantastic Pittsburgh Pirates rotation that is bound for the playoffs. Brandon McCarthy and Giants' rookie Chris Heston both throw heavy sinkers that are huge parts of their arsenals. Heston is a right-hander who compensates for a lack of velocity with crafty movement and deception. 

     While these are just a few names that could be on the Colorado watch list, many of price tags might be a little too high for Colorado  payroll. This brings me to my main point: Colorado could go a long way by teaching their young pitching prospects to throw one of these two pitches. At any level in the system, a sinker who prove beneficial and go a long way with the Colorado club.

    I understand that this is not a fix-all, nothing is, but in Colorado, where good pitching is hard to come by, this could certainly provide a fix of some kind. As we have seen in the last couple of years, the Rockies have put some great young talent on the field behind the pitchers mound, and could be a couple of mound pieces away from a championship run. Colorado is a great baseball town, and they deserve great results.